The Real Interest Rate

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Interpretation

The real interest rate is calculated as the difference between the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate. The chart above displays the nominal interest rate of a 1-year US Treasury bond, the US inflation rate, and the resulting one-year real interest rate. Inflation is defined as the yearly percentage change of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). When inflation is high, prices for goods and services rise and thus the purchasing power per unit of currency decreases. The chart shows that, adjusted for inflation, the yields on US Treasuries (blue line) have often been negative.

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Further Information


The Expected Real Interest Rate

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Interpretation

This chart provides a forward-looking view of the inflation-adjusted 10-Year Treasury Yield. It combines the nominal 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate and the 10-Year Breakeven inflation rate to calculate the 10-Year real interest rate. Because the nominal interest rate and the expected inflation rate span the same time frame, this measure of the real interest rate may be more accurate.
Interestingly, the 10-Year real interest rate is negatively correlated with Gold Prices.

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